In early 2023, aviation headlines were bleak: “U.S. Airlines About to Be Hit With a ‘Tsunami' of Pilot Retirements” and “The Pilot Shortage is Playing Havoc With Air Travel.” But were they accurate?

From a big-picture view, yes. The United States is facing a shortage of professional pilots, a trend that’s been building for years, especially following mass layoffs and pilot retirements during the pandemic. Now that the pandemic is over and air travel is taking back off, many U.S. airlines are struggling to find qualified candidates to fill empty pilot seats.

But what may seem like bad news for most, is actually good news for flight schools and their instructors, which will play a critical role in resolving the national pilot shortage. How? Well, quite simply, more pilot demand means more student pilots and that means more certified flight instructors will be helping these aspiring aviators meet their professional pilot dreams.

How Big is the Hiring Gap?

According to a report from OliverWyman, a management consulting firm, in 2023 and 2024, there will be a shortage of about 17,000 pilots, a number expected to grow to 24,000 by 2026.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics returns similar insight, saying the average projected openings for airline and commercial pilots over the decade will be about 18,000. The gap between commercial pilots and openings will likely continue to widen as the need for commercial pilots grows an estimated 6% between now and 2023.

Why is this happening? There are several factors in play, going back to the early days of the pandemic back in 2020.

As airlines cut flight hours and laid off employees, many commercial pilots either retired or changed career paths altogether, creating new job openings. A report from CNN found that more than half of pilots working today will hit the mandatory retirement age of 65 in the next 15 years and the rate of younger pilots joining the workforce is not enough to make up the difference.

The impact on U.S. airlines is hard to miss. That same report says that in April 2023, 42 states had less airline service than pre-pandemic and just shy of 140 airports have lost at least a quarter of their services. Some airlines have gone as far as completely shutting off flights to several airports in smaller cities that connect with larger hubs.

Even as more Americans are booking more flights, most airlines still haven’t recovered from their pandemic-era cuts. According to an advisory from AeroDynamics, of the approximate 16,000 aircraft retired at the height of the pandemic, only about 65% have re-entered service. In addition to that, about 5% of the fleet has been retired. When (and if) commercial airlines increase back to pre-COVID levels, it will create even more need for more pilots. And since all commercial airlines have at least two, sometimes three pilots on each flight, it will be much more than a one-pilot to one-route hiring equation.

Another factor influencing the hiring gap has to do with a downturn in the number of pilots commercial airlines are hiring from the military, which itself has a pilot shortage. That’s because a growing number of who would have been trained pilots, for example, in the Air Force, are now trained as gamers who virtually fly drones, not airplanes.

It’s More Complicated Than Just Hiring More Pilots

If the industry has a growing number of pilot openings, why don’t they just hire more? They’re trying, but it’s not enough. Airlines have increased pilot pay and benefits hoping to attract and retain pilots and some have even started to hire from abroad. The OliverWyman report found that salaries for regional airline pilots have also increased 86% from three years ago and larger carriers are aggressively trying to recruit pilots from those regional lines.

The more accurate answer to the hiring question is: It’s not that simple, primarily because of the length of time and experience required to become a commercial pilot. Many commercial pilots have at least a four-year college degree, with additional certification and training.

For example, to become a commercial pilot, a prospective pilot must earn a student pilot license, then can work toward a private pilot license, which requires additional ground school training and flight hours, before they move up in Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) certification to the ranks of a commercial pilot. And even if a potential pilot gets enough required flight hours — 250 — to get the FAA commercial certification, it still might not be enough to meet commercial airline standards. Delta, for example, requires pilot candidates to log a minimum of 1,500 flight hours before they’re eligible. Also, you’ll need an airline transport pilot (ATP) certification that requires that many hours, but also specifies specific flight time types for qualification.

Because of this, there just aren’t enough eligible pilots to fill the growing number of job openings.

Flight Schools and Airline Partnerships

Understanding the need to train more student pilots to work toward filling these job openings, many commercial airlines have formed partnerships with some flight schools. ATP, a professional flight training school, for example, says airlines have hired more than 1,000 of its graduates in the past 12 months. Through these partnerships, student pilots are offered opportunities such as tuition reimbursement, bonuses, and career path programs.

These types of partnerships will likely continue to fuel the takeoff for the pilot training market, which is expected to grow from about $4 billion in 2022 to nearly $6 billion by 2028.

Yet, the volume of available flight instructors needed to meet these demands is waning too, especially as commercial airlines increase incentives for certified pilots to leave the classroom and get back in commercial cockpits.

Are Flight Instructors the Answer?

As flight schools expand to keep up with growing demand, they’ll heavily rely on their flight instructors to ensure success, but that won’t be easy because they too are struggling to find pilots in this market.

Like commercial airlines, flight schools will likely have to increase compensation to remain competitive, along with offering attractive benefit packages. This may be challenging, especially for smaller flight schools outside of major metropolitan areas.

And even if flight training facilities can attract the talent they need, they’ll have to offer a range of incentives like performance-based incentives and career advancement opportunities to retain flight instructors, who are being actively courted by airlines and other flight schools.

With a limited number of instructors and a growing student pilot roster, flight schools will need to look for innovative ways to help those instructors make the most of their time with their students, and that will likely come in the form of investments into new technologies that simplify and expedite tracking flight schedules, hours, and other important logbook activities. The faster pilot instructors can help students complete requirements and successfully pass all testing and certification, the faster more pilots can move into the commercial pilot arena.

So, how can flight instructors help close the hiring gap? In helping to train, shape and mentor future commercial pilots, certified flight instructors will:

• Provide hands-on and simulated flight training
• Ensure students know and can meet all FAA requirements
• Foster skill development, new capabilities, and skill enhancement
• Encourage ongoing education and new skills acquisition

Yet, the biggest impact flight instructors may have on future commercial pilots is how they motivate and empower their students. While many people think of flight instruction in terms of “hard skills” such as navigation, map-reading, route planning, and equipment operations, instructors can also help student pilots gain valuable soft-skills that are much-needed in the commercial aviation industry.

For example, a flight instructor can serve as a student mentor, helping the student make professional connections in the industry. The instructor can also explain what a student can expect moving forward through higher-levels of pilot certifications and help them overcome challenges they may face along the way.

Flight instructors are also key in ensuring new pilots develop their skills in a safety-focused culture, something they will carry with them into the commercial airline industry. They play an important role in demonstrating the level of professionalism airlines require, and can offer tips and direction on how to act, self-presentation, and communication skills.

Throughout a student’s flight school journey, a flight instructor is essentially a sounding board, a guide available to listen to questions and concerns and provide actionable assessments and feedback to help a future pilot move forward toward professional goals. This can help students develop both short- and long-term career plans, not just to get hired by a commercial airline, but to continue to advance their careers and explore other areas of aviation as their interests evolve.

And maybe most importantly, flight instructors hold in the palm of their hands the future of the airline pilot market. How? Quite simply because if certified flight instructors don’t effectively train and educate their students, students won’t attain the certifications and flight hours needed to become commercial pilots. Without those key requirements, there won’t be a pool of pilots from which airlines can attract talent to close the hiring gap.

Getting Flights Off the Ground

The pilot shortage is not just a U.S.-based issue, but it’s also a global one. OliverWyman predicts that by 2025, in some extreme scenarios the global pilot shortage may get as high as 50,000. That’s a trend forecasters say is likely to remain for the next decade and could expand into other regions not yet affected.

As commercial airlines continue to look for innovative and creative ways to attract pilots, flight schools and their flight instructors will be critical in ensuring more students are moving from dreaming of becoming pilots to successfully earning their professional pilot licenses.